BlueberryMarkets：金价高位波动，非农数据前市场交投谨慎

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have faced resistance at the psychological level of $4,500 after a strong two-week rally, with recent market dynamics leading to profit-taking and cautious sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices reached a one-week high during Asian trading but faced selling pressure as risk appetite returned among some investors [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset, limiting its downside [1] - The U.S. dollar's inability to maintain its previous upward momentum, partly due to rising expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has also benefited gold [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Indicators - Investors are awaiting key U.S. economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, which may influence Federal Reserve policy and subsequently impact both the dollar and gold prices [1] - Recent U.S. economic data, such as ADP private sector employment, ISM services PMI, and job openings reports, could lead to short-term volatility in the market [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) is positioned below the current spot price and is rising, indicating potential support around $4,400 [1] - The MACD indicator has fallen below the signal line and remains in negative territory, suggesting weak short-term momentum [1] - The RSI has slightly dipped to 48.58, indicating a neutral zone and reflecting a balance in price movements after recent fluctuations [1] Group 4: Short-term Outlook - If momentum stabilizes and improves, gold prices may resume an upward trend, with potential support from a MACD golden cross and RSI returning above 50 [3] - Conversely, if momentum does not improve, gold prices may face pressure near current resistance levels and test the 100-hour SMA support [3] - As long as prices remain above the SMA, the downside may be limited; however, a close below the SMA could expand downward potential [3]