Micron Technology(US:MU) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-07 06:54Core Viewpoint - The global DRAM market is experiencing an unprecedented price surge, driven by explosive demand from the AI industry and supply-side contractions [2][4]. Group 1: Price Surge - Since July 2025, DRAM prices have been rapidly increasing, with most categories seeing price increases of over 100% [3]. - DDR4 and DDR5 memory prices have risen 2-3 times within the year, and the pace of price changes is accelerating as 2026 approaches [3]. - A specific DDR5 server memory module has exceeded 40,000 yuan (approximately 5,600 USD), highlighting the significant value increase compared to real estate in Shanghai [1]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The core driver of the memory price increase is the structural supply-demand imbalance caused by the explosive growth of the AI industry, with AI servers requiring 8-10 times more DRAM than regular servers [4]. - AI-related demand has consumed 53% of global monthly production capacity, further straining the allocation of consumer-grade memory [4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Major memory manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are strategically reallocating resources towards high-end, high-margin products like HBM and DDR5, leading to a reduction in DDR4 production capacity [5][6]. - Micron has raised prices by approximately 20% after resuming quotes and plans to stop selling Crucial consumer products by February 2026 [5]. - Samsung has increased contract prices for various DRAM products by 15%-30%, while SK Hynix has raised prices by up to 30% for DRAM and NAND Flash contracts [5]. Group 4: Market Trends - The HBM market is experiencing explosive growth, with prices rising over 30% and manufacturers facing a "one chip hard to find" situation due to sold-out capacities [6]. - The three major manufacturers have ceased capital investment and technological upgrades for DDR4, planning to significantly reduce its production capacity between 2025 and 2026 [6].