人民币“破7”，后市怎么走？

Group 1 - A moderate but sustained appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is underway, with the offshore RMB exchange rate recently reaching 6.9985, marking its return to the "6" level for the first time since September 2024 [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is guiding the exchange rate rather than imposing hard controls, allowing market fluctuations while preventing extreme volatility [3] - The current appreciation is supported by multiple favorable factors, including the resilience of the Chinese economy, reduced need for a weaker exchange rate to stimulate exports, and improved market sentiment [4] Group 2 - Market sentiment is shifting from a focus on depreciation to a bullish outlook on the RMB, with the currency becoming a confidence indicator for foreign investment in A-shares and risk appetite [5] - The weakening of the US dollar, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved global risk sentiment, has significantly reduced external pressures on the RMB [6][8] - The RMB is expected to transition from a passive variable influenced by the dollar to an active variable reflecting China's economic fundamentals, potentially opening up greater appreciation space [11] Group 3 - The RMB is currently undervalued by approximately 25% compared to its fundamental value, indicating that the ongoing appreciation is part of a long-term valuation correction rather than a short-term speculation [12] - A shift in market expectations from depreciation to appreciation could lead to a rapid inflow of capital, further supporting the RMB's value [13] - The RMB is expanding its role from a settlement currency to a financing currency, with increasing use in overseas debt issuance and trade transactions [14] Group 4 - The appreciation of the RMB may not necessarily tighten financial conditions; instead, it could enhance market confidence and liquidity if managed carefully [15] - Different industries will experience varying impacts from RMB appreciation: export-oriented sectors may face challenges, while import-dependent industries could benefit from lower costs [16][17] - Domestic companies that are less affected by exports may indirectly benefit from improved overall economic confidence [19]