中信证券首席经济学家明明：2026年长债收益率或“先下后上”

Group 1 - In 2025, the domestic capital market demonstrated strong resilience and vitality, with major equity indices surpassing 4000 points, particularly in technology and banking sectors [1] - The central economic work conference has laid out plans for 2026, indicating that growth-stabilizing policies are expected to continue, which may further enhance market confidence [1] - Consumption is projected to continue its moderate recovery, becoming the main driver of economic growth, while investment is expected to stabilize amid structural improvements [4][3] Group 2 - The fiscal policy is anticipated to maintain a moderate expansion, with new special bond quotas expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, and the scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds likely to remain at 1.3 trillion yuan [6][5] - The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately, with an annual average around 0.5%, while the producer price index (PPI) is projected to turn positive year-on-year by the third quarter [4] - The monetary policy is expected to have room for further easing, with potential for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, particularly focusing on supporting technology, green initiatives, and consumption [5][6] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to experience a "down then up" trend in long-term bond yields, influenced by economic recovery, fiscal expansion, and improved policy expectations [7] - The RMB is projected to maintain a stable appreciation trend, supported by a weaker dollar, a stabilizing domestic economy, and ongoing foreign exchange demand [8] - Key sectors such as artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing are anticipated to emerge as new highlights in the industry landscape, driven by supportive technology policies [12][10]