Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-07 07:53Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The current monetary policy outlook is in a "delicate balance" due to rising unemployment and persistent high inflation, as stated by Barkin, the President of the Richmond Federal Reserve [1][6] - After a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points last year, interest rates are now estimated to be within the neutral rate range, which neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth [1][6] - Future policy will require careful balancing between the dual mandates of full employment and controlling inflation, with expectations of clearer economic data in the coming months [1][6] Group 2: Economic Growth Predictions - Barkin anticipates that tax cuts and regulatory easing could provide momentum for economic growth this year [1][6] - The Fed's rate cuts last year are likened to "buying insurance" for the economy, indicating a proactive approach to economic stability [1][6] Group 3: Gold Price Forecast - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will rise to $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, surpassing last year's historical high, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Fed leadership, and continued buying by central banks and funds [1][6] - The recent events in Venezuela may attract more investors to gold for safety, although this factor is not a core basis for the $4,800 target [1][6]