（财经天下）前瞻2026：美委局势升级，如何影响国际油价？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela has caused short-term fluctuations in international oil prices, but the long-term trend is expected to be a decline due to supply and demand factors [1][2]. - Venezuela, despite having the largest oil reserves globally, has a low share in international oil supply due to U.S. sanctions and aging infrastructure, limiting the impact of the U.S. actions on oil prices [2]. - Analysts suggest that the degree of U.S. control over Venezuela's oil industry will significantly influence the structure of the heavy oil market, with a potential need for substantial investment and time for the industry to recover post-sanctions [2]. Group 2 - The international oil market is projected to face oversupply issues, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting that global oil supply growth will outpace demand by 2026 [3]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the oversupply in the global oil market may expand in the first half of the year, potentially reaching a peak mid-year, which would exert downward pressure on oil prices [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a "final large-scale supply wave" in 2026, leading to a surplus of 2 million barrels per day, with Brent crude prices expected to average $56 per barrel by mid-year [3].