金银，直线下跌！发生了什么？

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices rose significantly due to heightened geopolitical tensions, reaching close to $4500 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline, currently trading at approximately $4450.56 per ounce, down nearly 1% [1] - New York gold futures reported a price of $4455.99 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.89% [3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that gold prices will reach $4800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and continued buying by central banks and funds [17] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver prices fell over 3% during trading, currently at $78.36 per ounce, with New York silver futures down 3.5% at $78.20 per ounce [4][8] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that 2025 will see a peak in the silver market supply gap, with additional upward price risks due to China's new export licensing system [17] - Bank of America has set a target price range for silver between $135 and $309 per ounce, noting that silver's price increase of over 140% in 2025 is nearly double that of gold [19] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve officials express differing views on the need for aggressive interest rate cuts, with some suggesting a potential reduction exceeding 100 basis points this year [10][11] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide critical insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction, with predictions of job growth slowing and an unemployment rate holding at 4.6% [10][15] - Analysts suggest that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.7%, the Fed may proceed with a 25 basis point cut, with a significant likelihood of more than 60 basis points in total cuts if labor market conditions worsen [16]