美国的“石油美元”算盘能实现吗？

Core Viewpoint - The long-term probability of a significant increase in international oil prices is low, and the current U.S. administration may face a challenging situation regarding oil supply and demand dynamics [1][6]. Group 1: U.S. Intervention in Venezuela - The U.S. military's recent intervention in Venezuela aims to control President Maduro and facilitate U.S. oil companies' investment in the country, potentially amounting to billions of dollars for repairing oil infrastructure [2]. - Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves globally, totaling 303 billion barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia's 267 billion barrels, which could significantly alter the global oil supply landscape if properly exploited [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Global Oil Prices - Despite the U.S. intervention, global oil prices have remained stable due to supply and demand factors, with Venezuela's current oil production being less than 1% of global output due to various constraints [2][4]. - The U.S. government's renewed focus on traditional energy sources, including oil and gas, is seen as a strategy to enhance U.S. manufacturing and solidify its global energy dominance [3][5]. Group 3: Future Oil Market Dynamics - The U.S. administration's control over Venezuelan oil resources could significantly impact global oil pricing power, potentially diminishing OPEC's influence on supply and pricing [4]. - The U.S. has proven oil reserves of 81 billion barrels, and combined with Venezuelan resources, it could become a major player in the global oil market, affecting the dollar's dominance in oil pricing [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The transition towards renewable energy and the rise of electric vehicles may limit the demand for oil, making it unlikely for oil prices to see substantial increases in the long term [6].