GLP-1外溢、AI赋能……生物医药会是2026年科技股的“平替”吗？

Core Viewpoint - The biopharmaceutical sector is showing strong growth potential in 2026 due to attractive valuations, a rebound in business development and IPO activities, and numerous core catalysts, despite slightly lower revenue and profit growth expectations compared to the market average [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The biopharmaceutical sector in the U.S. is expected to perform well in 2025, breaking a two-year slump, with the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) rising by 32% and the S&P Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) increasing by 20%, both outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 17% gain [1]. - The current forecasted P/E ratio for large pharmaceutical stocks remains below that of the S&P 500, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4]. - The regulatory environment is expected to become more favorable entering 2026, with significant policy uncertainties largely resolved [6]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The growth logic of the biopharmaceutical industry is undergoing profound changes, with GLP-1 drugs expanding from diabetes and obesity into cardiovascular and neurological fields, and AI applications in drug development and clinical trial design entering a phase of tangible returns [4][9]. - The market for GLP-1 receptor agonists is experiencing significant transformation, with expanded indications and anticipated coverage by Medicare Part D, potentially increasing sales for major players like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk [7]. Group 3: Key Catalysts - Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron is expected to receive approval and launch in Q2 2026, with projected first-year sales reaching $1.8 billion, surpassing Wall Street consensus [8]. - AI is transitioning from a conceptual phase to generating measurable returns, with companies like Bristol Myers Squibb and Novartis demonstrating substantial cost savings and efficiency improvements through AI applications [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The focus for large-cap stocks remains on growth-oriented companies, with Eli Lilly identified as a top pick driven by GLP-1 penetration and orforglipron's launch, while Vertex and Gilead are also highlighted for their promising pipelines [10]. - In the small-cap biotech space, companies with significant de-risking events, such as Apogee, Arcellx, and NewAmsterdam, are under close observation [12].