Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-07 08:45Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to see a significant recovery in passenger turnover and profitability by 2025, with a projected passenger turnover of 1,099 billion person-kilometers in November 2025, representing an 18.2% increase compared to 2019 and a 9.6% increase compared to 2024 [1]. Aviation Passenger Transport Key Data - Demand: In November 2025, domestic passenger turnover (excluding regional) is projected to be 809 billion person-kilometers, up 19.6% from 2019 and 6.3% from 2024. International and regional passenger turnover is expected to reach 291 billion person-kilometers, reflecting a 14.5% increase from 2019 and a 19.9% increase from 2024 [1]. - Supply: The available seat kilometers in November 2025 are projected to be 1,283 billion, up 12.4% from 2019 and 6.4% from 2024. The passenger load factor is expected to be 85.7%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from 2019 and 2.5 percentage points from 2024 [2]. - Ticket Prices: In November, the average full ticket price for domestic routes is expected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year, while the bare ticket price is expected to increase by 3.8% [2]. - Performance of Listed Airlines: In November, the year-on-year RPK changes for major airlines on domestic routes are as follows: China Southern +7.4%, Air China +7.4%, China Eastern +5.1%, Hainan Airlines +4.5%, Spring Airlines +17.9%, and Juneyao Airlines +0.8%. The ASK changes for these airlines are +5.4%, +3.8%, +2.1%, +2.8%, +16.3%, and -0.5% respectively [2]. Air Cargo Key Data - In November 2025, the number of international and regional cargo flights is expected to reach 15,977, reflecting a 12.4% increase month-on-month and a 14% increase year-on-year. The theoretical cargo capacity is projected to be 110 million tons, with an 8.2% month-on-month increase and a 12.2% year-on-year increase [3]. - The average TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index is expected to be 5,469 points, reflecting a 1.5% month-on-month increase and a 16.2% year-on-year increase [3]. Investment Perspective - The increase in holiday time and significant year-on-year growth in industry volume and price suggest a positive outlook for Q1 spring travel performance. The recent seven-day passenger flow shows a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with domestic passenger flow up 13.7% and bare ticket prices up 7.9% [4]. - The industry is expected to benefit from supply-demand recovery, improved oil and exchange rate conditions, and a clear trend of profitability recovery. The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a significant reduction in losses due to demand growth and stabilized ticket prices, with 2025 expected to be the first year of profitability for major airlines [4]. - Recommended stocks include Air China (601111), China Southern Airlines (600029), Juneyao Airlines (603885), Spring Airlines (601021), and Huaxia Airlines (002928), with a suggestion to pay attention to China Eastern Airlines (600115) [4].