高盛：2026年对A股和H股均维持超配评级

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun and his team forecast a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market in 2026, expecting the MSCI China Index to rise by 20% and the CSI 300 Index by 12%, maintaining an overweight rating for both A-shares and H-shares [1] - The firm anticipates a "slow bull" market in 2026, with stock market returns increasingly reliant on fundamentals and stock selection, driven by factors such as accelerated earnings growth of listed companies, reasonable current valuations, policy support, and significant potential for incremental capital inflows [1] - Current valuations are noted, with the MSCI China Index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 times and the CSI 300 Index at 14.5 times, which are considered fair relative to historical levels but still at a discount compared to global markets [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs emphasizes four major investment themes closely aligned with policy priorities and structural trends, including the selection of ten leading private enterprises expected to enhance their market positions under trends like AI and policy support [2] - The firm has introduced an investment portfolio based on the "14th Five-Year Plan," comprising 50 mid-cap stocks focused on sectors supported by policy initiatives [2] - A selection of leading companies with strong global competitiveness and resilience in exports has been identified, benefiting from increased global market share [2] - Goldman Sachs has also launched a shareholder return portfolio, focusing on companies with significant buyback programs and attractive dividend yields, offering both cash returns and diversification value [2]