高盛坚定看好中国股市：AI与出海支撑盈利，MSCI中国今年有望上涨20%

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs issues a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market in its 2026 market outlook report, predicting significant gains driven by corporate profit growth [1][2] Market Performance - The MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index are expected to rise by 20% and 12% respectively in 2026, with a shift from valuation-driven growth to profit-driven growth [1][2] - The profit growth rate for Chinese listed companies is forecasted to accelerate from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026, particularly benefiting the TMT sector [1][4] Key Drivers - The optimistic forecast is based on three main drivers: artificial intelligence (AI), outbound strategies, and anti-involution policies [4] - The TMT sector is particularly favored, with expected profit growth of around 20% due to advancements in AI monetization and increased capital expenditure [4] Fund Flows - Southbound capital is projected to reach a record net inflow of $200 billion in 2026, driven by expanded investment scope and attractive dividend yields [5][6] - Domestic asset reallocation is expected to contribute approximately 3 trillion RMB to the stock market, supported by a decline in risk-free rates [5] - Share buybacks and dividends are anticipated to total nearly 4 trillion RMB, providing substantial cash returns to investors [6] Industry Allocation - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating on internet/media entertainment, online retail, technology hardware, materials, and insurance sectors [7] - The technology hardware sector is upgraded to overweight, seen as a key beneficiary of AI development and self-sufficiency strategies [7] Valuation and Policy - Current valuations for the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index are at 12.4x and 14.5x respectively, considered attractive compared to global markets [8] - The market is expected to benefit from supportive monetary and fiscal policies, as well as a favorable regulatory environment for the private sector [8]