全球涨势暂歇！贵金属全线重挫，大宗商品市场如何走？

Group 1 - Global stock markets showed signs of a pause in their upward trend on January 7, 2026, after a previous surge driven by AI hype and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Asian stock markets entered a technically overbought zone, leading to profit-taking and declines, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index falling over 1% [1] - U.S. stock index futures displayed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down more than 0.2%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The commodities market experienced significant volatility, particularly in precious metals, with spot gold prices dropping below $4,450 per ounce and silver prices declining by over 3% in a single day [1] - The declines in precious metals were partly attributed to a key funding event, as the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was set for annual weight rebalancing from January 8 to 14, leading to expected large-scale mechanical selling [1] - The anticipated sell-off could involve silver futures facing sell orders equivalent to 9% of total open interest, while gold futures could see sell orders around 3% of total open interest, exerting direct pressure on short-term market sentiment and prices [1] Group 3 - The oil market faced downward pressure following U.S. President Trump's announcement that the Venezuelan interim government would transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., raising concerns about a potential increase in global oil supply [2] - Federal Reserve officials provided policy clues, with Governor Milan stating that core inflation levels have returned close to the Fed's 2% target, suggesting further rate cuts may exceed 100 basis points this year [2] - The focus of investors is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025, as the Fed's policy direction is increasingly influenced by concerns over a weak labor market [2]