李迅雷：央行将抛售还是增持黄金，先看一张图

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, highlighting its dual attributes of value preservation and risk aversion, particularly in the context of ongoing financial, trade, and technological conflicts among major nations [1]. Group 1: Gold Holdings and Central Banks - Global central banks held 12.25 billion ounces of gold in 1964, which decreased to 11.66 billion ounces by 2024, despite significant monetary expansion over the same period [3]. - The price of gold has increased nearly 75 times from $35 per ounce in 1964 to approximately $2639 per ounce in 2024, indicating a substantial rise in value despite the reduction in physical gold holdings [3]. - The total value of central bank gold reserves is projected to exceed $3 trillion by the end of 2024, yet this represents a low percentage of global broad money supply, increasing from 4.3% in 1964 to only 1.9% in 2024 [5]. Group 2: Monetary Expansion and Gold Value - The broad money supply (M2) grew from $0.98 trillion in 1964 to $156.67 trillion in 2024, a 159-fold increase, which outpaces the growth in gold prices [3]. - The ratio of broad money to GDP has risen significantly, from 53.4% in 1964 to 141.17% by the end of 2024, indicating a trend of monetary overexpansion [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Strategies - The share of foreign exchange reserves in total central bank reserves increased from 31% in 1960 to a peak of 90% between 2006 and 2008, before declining to 77% in 2024, reflecting a shift in reserve management strategies [7]. - The proportion of gold in central bank reserves was 59% in 1964, but this dropped to around 10% from 2000 to 2019, with a slight recovery to 17% by 2024, still below historical levels [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The article suggests that central banks should continue to increase their gold reserves in response to concerns over U.S. debt and the weakening dollar, which has prompted a shift towards gold accumulation since 2022 [10]. - For China, increasing gold reserves relative to U.S. and Japanese government bonds is recommended to enhance the international status of the Renminbi and optimize reserve structures [14].