六大工业金属，集体上涨！机构前瞻2026年投资逻辑

Group 1: Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing a clear long-term upward trend, driven by macroeconomic factors and improving fundamentals, with expectations of a tight spot market in the first half of 2026 [1] - Current industrialization, urbanization, and electrification processes are reshaping the demand growth curve for copper, with potential price elasticity expected to exceed 100% in the medium to long term [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to face a tight supply-demand balance, with a narrowing decline in demand from the real estate sector and a recovery in the export market [2] - Emerging fields such as energy storage are providing significant growth opportunities for aluminum consumption, leading to a probable shortage in the aluminum market by 2026 [2] Group 3: Tin Market - Tin prices are anticipated to show significant phase differentiation, with supply bottlenecks expected to ease after the second quarter of 2026, improving market conditions [2] - However, geopolitical risks may cause temporary disruptions in the tin market during the first quarter of 2026, while a tight supply-demand situation is expected to persist in the first half of 2026 [2] Group 4: Nickel Market - Nickel prices are highly dependent on the implementation of Indonesian policies, with a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets expected to impact the market [3] - The anticipated production target of 250 million tons for 2026 is expected to be insufficient to meet domestic smelting needs, potentially reversing the current oversupply situation [3] Group 5: Zinc Market - The zinc market is expected to strengthen structurally due to macroeconomic and fundamental support, with a proactive inventory replenishment phase anticipated [3] - Demand from new economic sectors, such as renewable energy, is expected to contribute to a 2% increase in global zinc demand in 2026 [3] Group 6: Lead Market - The lead market is likely to continue a wide-ranging oscillation pattern, with a slight oversupply situation globally and a narrowing supply-demand gap in the domestic market [4] - The expected price range for lead in 2026 is projected to be between 16,500 to 18,000 CNY per ton for Shanghai lead futures and 1,900 to 2,150 USD per ton for London lead prices [4]