Counterpoint：内存一季度将再涨价40%-50%

Core Insights - The storage chip prices are expected to continue rising in 2023, driven by the demand for AI infrastructure and the booming storage semiconductor market [1][3] Group 1: Price Trends - In Q4 of last year, storage chip prices surged by 40% to 50%, with expectations of a further increase of 40% to 50% in Q1 of this year and a 20% rise in Q2 [3] - The price of 64GB RDIMM memory has increased significantly from $255 in Q3 2025 to $450 in Q4 2025, with projections to reach $700 by March 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The storage chip market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing the historical highs of 2018 [3] - The bargaining power of suppliers has reached an all-time high due to the ongoing demand for AI and server computing power [3] Group 3: Supply Constraints - A shortage in storage chip supply is expected to persist in the short term, as leading companies like Samsung and SK Hynix shift production capacity towards higher-margin server DDR5 chips, leading to a rapid decline in the supply of traditional products [3] - Although DRAM production is projected to grow by 24% year-on-year this year, it will take time to meet actual market demand [3]