2026格隆汇下注中国十大核心资产之携程集团

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group has been selected as a core asset in the consumer tourism sector for 2026, reflecting its strong position in the recovering domestic consumption market and its structural transformation into a comprehensive tourism service provider [1] Company Analysis - Ctrip is transitioning from a "single booking platform" to a "full-domain tourism ecosystem service provider," leveraging its leadership in the online travel agency (OTA) sector [1] - The company reported a revenue of 47 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and an adjusted operating profit of 13.29 billion yuan, up 11.5%, showcasing its resilience in a challenging consumption environment [1] - Ctrip's unique model combines a stable domestic base, international business expansion, comprehensive supply chain coverage, and technological empowerment, resulting in a profit structure characterized by both cyclical resilience and growth certainty [1] Industry Trends - The tourism service industry is experiencing growth, benefiting from an increase in domestic tourism service share and a significant recovery in inbound tourism due to favorable policies aimed at stimulating consumption [3] - The domestic tourism market is showing steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 18% in tourist numbers and 11.5% in tourism revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [8] - The OTA penetration rate in China reached 51.5% in 2024 and continues to rise, indicating a shift towards online booking as the mainstream mode of tourism consumption [8] Competitive Advantages - Ctrip has established significant barriers to entry through brand and traffic advantages, with a user repurchase rate exceeding 60% [4] - The company has a robust supply chain covering over 750,000 hotels in more than 600 cities domestically and 1.2 million hotels globally, providing a comprehensive one-stop service for diverse travel needs [4][5] - Ctrip's early global expansion through acquisitions has positioned it well in the international market, with substantial growth in international OTA bookings [5] Business Structure - Ctrip's domestic tourism business remains the core profit base, contributing over 80% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by both high-end and budget travel segments [10] - The international tourism business is rapidly growing, with a significant increase in bookings for inbound and outbound travel, expected to become a core growth driver alongside domestic operations [10] - The company has diversified its service offerings beyond core travel bookings to include vacation products, scenic tickets, and business travel management, enhancing its revenue structure [11][12] Investment Outlook - Ctrip is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity due to its low valuation and strong growth potential, with expected revenue growth of 15%-17% in 2026 [13] - The company is anticipated to benefit from policy incentives, rising consumer income, and a recovering tourism market, positioning it as a key player in the consumption recovery cycle [14]