欧元区12月CPI放缓至2%，市场预期欧央行将长期“按兵不动”

Core Insights - Eurozone inflation has returned to the European Central Bank's (ECB) target level of 2%, reinforcing the decision-makers' stance to maintain current interest rates unless significant changes in the economic outlook occur [1] - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2% year-on-year, down from 2.1% previously, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, decreased from 2.4% in November to 2.3% in December, while service sector inflation also fell from 3.5% to 3.4% [1] Market Reaction - Following the data release, market reactions were relatively muted, with the euro holding steady against the dollar around 1.169 and the Stoxx 600 index showing no significant fluctuations [2] Interest Rate Outlook - Despite the return to target inflation potentially providing grounds for future rate cuts, traders have only slightly increased bets on monetary easing, with a 20% probability of a 25 basis point cut by September [5] - The ECB has maintained borrowing costs unchanged since the last rate cut in June, with the key deposit facility rate currently at 2% [5] - Economists and investors generally expect no further policy actions from the ECB in the foreseeable future [5] Inflation Disparities and Wage Pressures - While overall inflation slowdown meets expectations, there are significant disparities in price growth across the Eurozone, with Spain at 3%, Germany at 2%, and France at 0.7% [6] - Service sector inflation remains a primary concern for the ECB, with wage growth indicators in Q3 holding steady at 4%, above levels considered consistent with price stability [6] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that while wage growth has largely caught up post-pandemic, the central bank needs to "carefully observe related trends" [6] Decision-Maker Stance and Market Projections - Most decision-makers believe inflation is under control but remain cautious due to persistent global economic uncertainties [7] - Analysts from Nordea maintain a long-term view that the ECB will keep rates unchanged until 2026, with short-term risks leaning towards rate cuts and long-term risks towards hikes [7] - The ECB's forecast suggests that inflation will be slightly below target in 2025, with an average inflation rate of 1.9% expected in 2026, followed by a rise to 2% in 2028 [7] External Factors and Risks - Several external factors could lead to inflation deviating from the target, including the delayed effects of U.S. tariff policies, a strong euro, and potential fiscal expansion policies in Germany [8] - ECB officials have indicated that the easing cycle is nearing its end, emphasizing a data-dependent decision-making approach [8]