岗位没有消失，但好工作更难找了

Core Viewpoint - The employment situation in 2025 is characterized by a paradox where macroeconomic indicators show stability, but individual experiences of employment are increasingly negative, leading to a perception of a structural imbalance in the job market [1] Group 1: Long-term Structural Dilemmas - The transformation of industrial structure is reducing the employment capacity of traditional labor-intensive sectors while new industries like AI and digital economy are still in a phase of selective hiring, limiting widespread job absorption [2] - Economic growth is slowing down, leading to cautious hiring practices among companies, with a tendency to outsource jobs rather than hire directly [2] - Weak consumer recovery is hindering the expansion of traditional employment sectors, with rising operational costs squeezing profit margins for small service businesses [2][3] Group 2: Key Facts Indicating Pressure - The number of college graduates in 2025 is projected to reach 12.22 million, marking a historical high and indicating sustained pressure on the job market [4] - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is fluctuating between 16% and 18%, significantly higher than the overall unemployment rate of around 5% [4] - There is a notable increase in risk-averse choices among youth, with a record number of applicants for civil service exams surpassing those for graduate studies [4] Group 3: Employment Mismatch - The current employment issue is characterized as a mismatch rather than a disappearance of jobs, with a significant portion of the workforce experiencing "hidden unemployment" due to various factors [5][9] - The labor participation rate has declined by approximately 1.9% to 2.3% from pre-pandemic levels, indicating a substantial number of individuals exiting the labor market [7] - Despite an increase in the share of labor compensation in GDP, workers feel little improvement in their income, highlighting a disparity between macroeconomic data and individual experiences [7] Group 4: Youth Employment Dilemmas - The rising educational qualifications of youth are not translating into job opportunities, leading to a rational choice of pursuing stable government jobs as a form of risk aversion [13] - The influx of educated individuals into low-stability sectors exacerbates competition and limits innovation in market-driven sectors [14] Group 5: Impact of AI on Employment - AI is reshaping the job market, leading to job polarization where high-skill positions are expanding while middle-skill jobs are being compressed [15][16] - New job opportunities are emerging in AI-related fields, but there is a growing skills gap as traditional roles decline [15] Group 6: Flexible Employment Trends - Flexible employment and new job forms are expanding, becoming a significant channel for income generation, yet they face challenges such as income volatility and lack of social security [17] - Recent legal changes are aimed at improving the regulatory framework for gig workers, but the implementation remains complex [18][19] Group 7: Migrant Worker Trends - An early wave of migrant workers returning home is observed, driven by weak demand in construction and manufacturing sectors, leading to increased social pressures in rural areas [20][21] - The trend reflects a long-term shift in labor dynamics, with fewer migrant workers willing to endure the risks associated with urban employment [21] Group 8: Employment Market Dynamics - The employment landscape in 2025 is marked by contradictions, with structural issues becoming more pronounced as technological advancements disrupt traditional job markets [24] - Policymakers face a critical moment to reshape employment governance and address the complexities of the labor market [25]