花旗：维持中国市场建设性乐观态度 恒指今年目标28800点 金价下半年或受压

Group 1 - Citigroup maintains a constructive outlook on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, favoring a strategy of overweighting equities and underweighting bonds for 2026, with a target for the Hang Seng Index at 28,800 points [1] - The Chinese internet sector shows resilience, with major players experiencing significant revenue growth in cloud services, expected to maintain a growth rate of 20-30% over the next year, driven by AI applications [1] - The gaming industry in China is highlighted as a growth area, leveraging AI technology to enhance game development efficiency and player experience, as evidenced by positive reception of domestic games in overseas markets [1] Group 2 - The online gaming sector grew approximately 7% year-on-year, with a moderate increase in per capita spending, indicating its relative immunity to external economic fluctuations [2] - Citigroup also sees potential in the insurance and healthcare sectors, driven by policy support and increased equity investment by insurance funds, as well as the expansion of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in innovative drug development and licensing [2] - Despite high valuations in the US market, Citigroup believes that sustained earnings growth is crucial, with expectations of a 16% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, supported by AI as a genuine driver of corporate profitability [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are expected to provide liquidity support for the US stock market, with predictions of three rate cuts totaling 0.75% this year, which could benefit large growth stocks [3] - Gold is anticipated to play a significant role in investment portfolios in early 2026, with a suggested allocation of about 4%, due to geopolitical risks and expectations of US rate cuts, although potential price corrections may occur if the US economy accelerates [3] - A balanced yet slightly aggressive investment strategy is recommended for 2026, favoring large growth stocks in the US and European markets (excluding the UK), while also considering recovery potential in Chinese internet and consumer sectors [3]