慢牛行情继续！高盛再次唱多中国股市：盈利驱动，2026年指数再涨20%

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index by 2026, driven entirely by earnings growth [1] Group 1: Fund Inflows - In 2026, net inflows into the Chinese stock market are expected to exceed outflows, with southbound capital net purchases projected to reach $200 billion, setting a new historical high [2][8] - Domestic asset reallocation may accelerate, potentially bringing an additional 3 trillion RMB ($420 billion) into the stock market [7] - The anticipated scale of dividends and buybacks this year could approach 4 trillion RMB ($570 billion) [7] Group 2: Policy Expectations - Monetary policy is expected to further ease through moderate reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts, despite potential upward pressure on the RMB against the USD [3] - Fiscal policy is projected to rebound, with the general fiscal deficit rate expected to rise from 11% in 2025 to 12.2% in 2026, supporting real estate destocking and infrastructure investments [3] - Regulatory stance towards the private economy is expected to remain supportive, with friendly stock market policies likely to continue unless there are signs of excessive valuations or rampant speculation [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The supply of funds is seen as a crucial factor for the slow bull market in Chinese stocks [5] - The "national team" is estimated to hold approximately 6 trillion RMB in Chinese stocks, acting as a stabilizing force during market sell-offs [10] - Corporate buybacks are projected to increase by 20% in 2026, following a strong performance in 2025 [10] Group 4: Investor Behavior - Global long-term investors are expected to reduce their underweight position in Chinese stocks, with a potential buying scale of $10 billion [8][9] - Domestic individual investors have significant room for reallocating assets, with only 11% currently in stocks compared to 54% in real estate and 28% in cash [9] - Institutional investors are anticipated to bring in 30 trillion RMB and 14 trillion RMB into the market, aligning with developed and emerging market averages [9]