Kouzijiao(SH:603589) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-07 14:26Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with Kuozi Jiao (口子窖) forecasting a more than 50% decline in net profit for 2025, prompting a shift towards the bulk liquor market to mitigate losses [1][2]. Financial Performance - Kuozi Jiao's 2025 net profit is projected to be between 662 million to 828 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50% to 60% [1]. - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be between 645 million to 811 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 49.65% to 59.93% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Kuozi Jiao reported revenue of 3.174 billion yuan, down 27.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 742 million yuan, down 43.39% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue drop to 643 million yuan, a 46.23% decline, and net profit plummeting to 26.97 million yuan, a staggering 92.55% decrease [2]. - The fourth quarter is expected to yield a net profit ranging from -7.991 million to 8.559 million yuan, indicating a potential year-on-year decline of approximately 75% [2]. Market Strategy - In response to declining performance, Kuozi Jiao is focusing on the bulk liquor sector, having opened its first direct-operated "Kuozi Liquor Workshop" in Huai Bei, Anhui, aimed at providing community-based experiences and catering to the demand for affordable liquor [2]. - The strategy involves a "manufacturer direct + high-frequency repurchase of bulk liquor" approach to regain control over pricing, display, and sales data, while also addressing low-end market needs to prevent market share loss to competing brands [3].