白酒股年报“首只黑天鹅”：口子窖净利预降50%-60%

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments, and the first earnings forecast from a major player, Kuozi Jiao, indicates a projected net profit decline of over 50% for 2025, prompting the company to shift focus towards the bulk liquor market [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Kuozi Jiao expects a net profit of between 662 million to 828 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50% to 60% [1]. - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 645 million to 811 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 49.65% to 59.93% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in performance is attributed to market segmentation, intensified channel changes, demand downturn, and policy shifts, leading to a significant drop in sales of high-end products [1]. Group 2: Previous Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Kuozi Jiao reported revenues of 3.174 billion yuan, down 27.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 742 million yuan, down 43.39% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter alone saw revenues of 643 million yuan, a decline of 46.23%, and a net profit of 26.97 million yuan, down 92.55%, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2016 [2]. - The earnings deterioration exceeded most broker expectations, with a consensus forecast of 1.081 billion yuan, indicating a 34.71% decline [2]. Group 3: Strategic Shift - In response to the declining performance, Kuozi Jiao is targeting the bulk liquor market, having opened its first direct-operated "Kuozi Liquor Workshop" in Huai Bei, Anhui, focusing on pure grain bulk liquor and community experiences [2]. - The strategy aims to rebuild terminal touchpoints and regain control over pricing, display, and sales data while addressing low-end demand to prevent market share loss to competing brands [3].