大宗商品迎来“银强油弱”时代

Group 1 - The recent surge in silver prices, surpassing oil prices, indicates a significant shift in market dynamics, with the silver-to-oil ratio fluctuating between 1.2 and 1.3 [3][4] - Historical context shows that the last time silver was more expensive than oil was approximately 45 years ago, during the Hunt brothers' manipulation of the silver market [2] - The current geopolitical situation in Venezuela has not significantly impacted oil prices, which have been on a downward trend, reflecting a broader supply surplus in the global market [3][4] Group 2 - Silver's demand is closely tied to industrial applications, particularly in sectors like electronics and photovoltaics, which are expected to drive its price, despite a projected slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth [4][5] - Oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to anticipated increases in U.S. oil production and ongoing global supply surplus, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average WTI oil price of $52 per barrel in 2026 [5][6] - The silver-to-oil ratio is expected to remain above 1, but significant increases are unlikely, with key factors including OPEC+ production cuts and global energy policy changes influencing this dynamic [6]