逆势不涨价 格力不从容

Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning industry is shifting from growth expansion to optimizing existing stock, with rising copper prices and price wars pushing companies to make strategic choices [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The air conditioning market is experiencing a transition where the demand for replacements is expected to exceed 60% in 2024, indicating a shift towards a stock replacement model [1] - The cost pressure from copper, which constitutes 15%-20% of air conditioning costs, is significant, with copper prices projected to exceed 90,000 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 35% [1] - The copper-aluminum price ratio has reached 3.9:1, making the idea of substituting aluminum for copper appealing to many companies [1] Group 2: Cost Pressures - The long-term trend of rising copper prices is exacerbating cost pressures in the air conditioning industry, with a cumulative return of 92.13% in the copper index over the past year [4] - The global copper supply is expected to face zero or negative growth by 2026 due to constraints on supply, while demand is rising due to factors like AI expansion and increased investment in power grids, leading to a projected supply gap of approximately 830,000 tons [5] Group 3: Technological Developments - Companies like Midea, Haier, and TCL are exploring aluminum as a substitute for copper, but the technology is still in its early stages and not yet a mainstream solution [5][6] - The penetration rate of aluminum in air conditioning heat exchangers is currently limited, and the risks associated with aluminum, such as higher electrochemical corrosion, pose additional challenges [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The air conditioning market is showing signs of differentiation, with online sales increasing by 9.48% and 11.41% in volume, while offline sales are declining [7] - The average price of online air conditioners decreased by 1.73% to 2,688 yuan, and offline prices fell by 3.05% to 4,174 yuan, indicating a price competition driven by market share concerns [7] - Major brands are under pressure to maintain high profit margins while competing with lower-cost alternatives, leading to a decline in market share for top brands [10][11] Group 5: Company Performance - Gree Electric's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 137.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.5%, with net profit down 2.3% [10] - The company is facing multiple pressures, including rising consumer demand for cost-effectiveness and competition from digital reforms by rivals [10] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with lower-tier brands gaining market share through aggressive pricing strategies, while top brands are losing ground [11]