印尼政策变化加剧镍市供应担忧

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have been experiencing a significant rebound since mid-December 2025, driven primarily by uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's nickel mining policies, with a notable acceleration in price increases in 2026 [1] Group 1: Nickel Price Dynamics - The main catalyst for the recent rise in nickel prices is the uncertainty regarding Indonesia's mining policies, which has tightened supply and raised cost expectations in the industry [1] - Analysts indicate that Indonesia's nickel production target for 2026 is set at approximately 250 million tons, a 34% decrease from the 379 million tons quota in 2025, aimed at preventing further price declines [1][2] - The market sentiment in the non-ferrous sector is improving, with nickel being viewed as a relatively undervalued metal, leading to strong potential for price recovery [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - If Indonesia's nickel mining approval quota drops to 250 million tons, combined with imports from the Philippines and a projected consumption of 340 to 350 million tons, there will be a significant supply gap in local smelting materials [2] - Despite the tightening supply, the overall nickel market remains weak, with an expected surplus of approximately 190,900 tons in 2026, similar to 2025 levels, indicating limited demand growth [2] - Current high inventory levels, with LME nickel stocks exceeding 250,000 tons, suggest that the nickel market is still in a state of oversupply, despite some positive expectations [2] Group 3: Macro Factors and Market Sentiment - A moderately loose monetary policy is contributing to the upward pressure on non-ferrous metal prices, including nickel, with increased market liquidity expected to amplify price volatility [3] - The short-term market trajectory will depend on the interplay between Indonesia's mining policies and the existing oversupply and high inventory levels, while long-term focus should be on the implementation of Indonesia's mining approval policies [3]