ADP Rebounds to +41K, JOLTS & ISM Services After the Open

Core Insights - The December private-sector payrolls from ADP reported an increase of +41K, slightly below estimates but showing a rebound from the previous month's revised figure of -29K [1][2] - The average monthly ADP jobs numbers over the past six months have been weak, averaging only +27K new hires, compared to +122K in the previous six months [2] Employment Trends - Goods-producing jobs decreased by -3K, but losses are narrowing, while services gained +44K positions, with medium-sized firms leading with +34K new hires [3] - The Education/Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, followed by Leisure/Hospitality with +24K and Trade/Transportation/Utilities with +11K, while Professional/Business Services lost -29K positions [4] Wage Growth - Average wage gains for job stayers were +4.4% and for job changers +4.6%, indicating a tight labor market, with job changers not seeing significant wage increases as typically expected [5] Market Expectations - The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is expected to show 7.6 million job openings, consistent with recent months and reflecting a high level of job insecurity among the labor force [6] - ISM Services for December is projected to decrease by 40 basis points to 52.2%, indicating economic growth, while ISM Manufacturing fell to 47.9%, suggesting economic contraction [7] - Factory Orders for October are anticipated to decline by -1.2%, aligning with the weakening employment environment indicated by ADP's Goods-producing jobs and ISM Manufacturing data [8]