「改革创新」陈文玲：国际金价为何一路狂飙？

Core Insights - The international gold prices are expected to reach historical highs by the end of 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 70% throughout the year, driven by geopolitical tensions, market supply-demand issues, and safe-haven demand [1][2][3] Market Performance - Gold prices surged from $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to $4,500 per ounce by the end of the year, marking a 163% increase over three years and the strongest annual performance since 1979 [2][3] - The price fluctuations in 2025 can be divided into several phases: - January to April saw a rise from $2,900 to $3,500 due to tariff fears - April to August experienced a stabilization between $3,200 and $3,500 as trade negotiations progressed - August to October saw prices exceed $3,800, reaching a peak of $4,200 - October to mid-December involved a technical correction due to profit-taking - Mid-December to year-end saw prices break through $4,500 [3] Factors Driving Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is characterized by "multiple logical resonances," including the long-term upward trend post-Bretton Woods, traditional geopolitical risks, inflation hedging, and the impact of "de-dollarization" [3][7] - Geopolitical instability, particularly involving the U.S., Venezuela, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, has significantly increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7][6] - Central banks, especially in emerging markets like China, India, and Russia, are increasing their gold reserves as part of a broader strategy to diversify away from the dollar [5][7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank demand [8][9] - The dollar's dominance is expected to weaken gradually, leading to a multi-polar reserve currency system, although this process will be slow and complex [10][11]