地缘政治靠边站，美股2026年的真正驱动力还是“盈利为王”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a trend of concentration dispersion at the beginning of 2026, with earnings growth becoming the core driver of market increases. Goldman Sachs predicts the S&P 500 index will rise to 7600 points in 2026, primarily driven by a 12% growth in earnings [1]. Market Structure Changes - Since the start of 2026, the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta, have collectively declined by approximately 0.5%, while the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 have increased by 2.5%. This shift indicates a reallocation of assets by investors, with industrial, healthcare, and technology sectors performing notably well in the first three trading days of the year [1]. Economic Growth and Earnings Projections - Goldman Sachs' Managing Director Chris Hussey notes that accelerated U.S. economic growth combined with loose monetary policy will drive the rise of cyclical sectors in early 2026, including small-cap stocks and companies related to non-residential construction. The firm expects S&P 500 constituent earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 12% in 2026 and by 10% in 2027 [2][3]. Key Investment Themes - Five key investment themes for the U.S. stock market in 2026 have been identified: 1. Mid-cycle acceleration, recommending an increase in cyclical stocks, including industrial and HVAC-related stocks [4]. 2. "Massive Re-leveraging," where financial stocks will benefit as companies increase borrowing for future investments [5]. 3. Focus on the application of artificial intelligence (AI), with investment opportunities in companies deploying AI solutions to reduce costs [5]. 4. "Revival of the Arts," where private equity is expected to see a resurgence in exits, distributions, and fundraising due to a rebound in IPOs and M&A activity [5]. 5. Value investment opportunities, particularly in the healthcare sector, as favorable macroeconomic conditions suggest continued strong performance of value factors [5]. Risks to Monitor - Goldman Sachs highlights three key risks: the potential for economic recession due to worsening employment, the possibility of slowing AI growth impacting the overall economy, and interest rate risks. While the firm predicts moderate fluctuations in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries, accelerated GDP growth typically accompanies rising yields, which could pose challenges for the stock market [6].