Core Viewpoint - Paramount's attempt to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has been rejected, with WBD favoring Netflix's offer over Paramount's all-cash bid, highlighting the ongoing competition for WBD's assets and the valuation of its cable networks [2][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Attempts - David Ellison's Paramount Skydance CEO made an eighth bid for WBD, which was rejected, as WBD stated that Netflix's offer of $27.75 per share is superior to Paramount's $30 per share all-cash offer [1][2]. - WBD's rejection letter outlined additional costs associated with Paramount's bid, totaling approximately $4.7 billion, which would effectively reduce the value of Paramount's offer to about $28.21 per share [6]. Group 2: Valuation of Cable Networks - The valuation of WBD's cable networks is a critical factor in comparing the bids from Netflix and Paramount, with a $2.25 per share difference noted between the two offers [4]. - If WBD's cable networks are valued at $2.25 per share or more, Netflix's proposal becomes more attractive; conversely, if valued less, Paramount's offer may seem more appealing [5]. - Analysts have pointed to the recent performance of Versant, a spinoff of Comcast's cable assets, which has seen a significant decline in value, indicating a lack of market appetite for cable TV assets [7][9]. Group 3: Market Comparisons - Versant's current market value is under $5 billion, with an enterprise value of approximately $7.25 billion, and it is expected to generate $1.85 billion to $2 billion in EBITDA by 2026 [8]. - The EV/EBITDA ratio for Versant is about 3.8x, which is considerably lower than the multiples for many S&P 500 companies, suggesting a bearish outlook for cable TV assets [9]. - If WBD's Global Networks were to trade at the same EV/EBITDA ratio as Versant, it would be valued at only about $1.20 per share, which could strengthen Paramount's case to shareholders [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that WBD's cable assets, including CNN and major sports rights, are more valuable than Versant's, despite WBD carrying more debt [12][13]. - There is speculation that WBD's Global Networks may be sold or broken up after a spinout, potentially unlocking significant value [14]. - For Paramount to successfully outbid Netflix, a substantial increase in their bid and cash investment would be necessary [15].
David Ellison got some good news this week, despite Warner Bros. Discovery rejecting his latest bid