达利欧年度复盘：美元等法币贬值，美股高回报只是“计价幻觉”，黄金跑赢一切

Group 1: Core Insights - The core narrative emphasizes that the real value anchor is gold, with the U.S. stock market showing strong returns in 2025 (18%) primarily due to significant depreciation of the dollar and other fiat currencies, leading to a "pricing illusion" [1][4] - Gold has emerged as the second-largest reserve currency, highlighting a shift in asset allocation towards non-U.S. markets, as foreign investors show decreasing interest in dollar-denominated assets [5][10] - The U.S. stock market is experiencing peak valuations, with profit growth driven by sales and technological efficiency, but the benefits are disproportionately flowing to capital owners rather than workers [6][12] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The performance of the S&P 500 index, while showing an 18% total return in USD, masks a significant decline of 28% when measured in gold terms, indicating a stark contrast in asset performance based on currency valuation [1][10] - Non-liquid markets such as venture capital, private equity, and real estate are under pressure, facing severe debt extension challenges and a potential rise in liquidity premiums [7][14] - The political landscape is shifting from multilateralism to unilateralism, increasing military spending and sanctions, which further diminishes the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [8][18] Group 3: Economic and Political Context - The affordability crisis driven by inflation is causing unrest among the lower 60% of the population, with predictions of significant political conflict between extreme left and right forces in the U.S. by 2027-2028 [1][8] - The disparity in wealth distribution is widening, with the top 10% benefiting from stock ownership while the majority feel the burden of inflation, leading to potential political upheaval [15][16] - The current geopolitical climate is characterized by increased military expenditures and a shift towards protectionism and de-globalization, impacting investment flows and asset preferences [18][19]