楼市大局已定？2026年的房价，已经出现这4大迹象！

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has entered a deep adjustment period since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping over 30%, and some areas experiencing declines exceeding 60%. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, driven by various factors including housing price bubbles, declining incomes, and increased supply of affordable housing [1][3][4]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - The average national housing price has decreased by over 30%, with certain regions around Beijing seeing declines of more than 60% [1]. - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are also experiencing price adjustments, with Shanghai's central area prices dropping from over 90,000 yuan per square meter in 2021 to over 60,000 yuan currently, a decline of more than 30% [1]. - The overall trend indicates a move towards de-bubbling and de-investment in housing, aligning prices with local income levels [1]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - Housing price bubbles exist, with price-to-income ratios in second and third-tier cities ranging from 20 to 25 times, and over 40 times in first-tier cities, making home ownership unattainable for many residents [1]. - The general economic environment is challenging, with many residents facing income declines or unemployment, further weakening the support for high housing prices [1]. - The real estate market has seen a continuous decline for over four years, leading to a loss of investment appeal, prompting many investors to sell or hold cash [1]. Group 3: Future Indicators - The aging population in China is expected to reduce the demand for new housing, with the elderly population projected to reach 310 million by the end of 2024, while the number of young people is decreasing [3]. - The government plans to accelerate the introduction of affordable housing, with 600,000 units expected over five years, which will create a dual market of commercial and affordable housing, further impacting demand for commercial properties [4]. - The surge in second-hand housing listings, with over 9.2 million units by the end of 2025 and a 73% increase in Shenzhen, indicates a growing supply that may exacerbate downward pressure on prices [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall trend for housing prices in 2026 is expected to be "stable with a decline," presenting opportunities for first-time homebuyers due to favorable policies and falling prices [6]. - However, the market remains risky for speculative investors, who are advised to exercise caution to avoid potential losses [6].