Sublime China Information (SZ:301299) Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-07 20:50Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic copper market is experiencing a significant price increase, with expectations of a new upward trend in copper prices for 2026 due to supply concerns and strong demand forecasts [1][4][6] - As of January 7, 2025, the domestic electrolytic copper price reached 103,535 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 39.17%, breaking the 100,000 yuan/ton mark by the end of December 2025 [2][3] - The long-term contract negotiations for 2026 are characterized by heightened pricing enthusiasm, reflecting market concerns about supply tightness and demand resilience [2][3] Group 2 - The copper concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) negotiations are currently at a stalemate, with expected prices for 2026 ranging from -11 to 0 USD/ton, indicating a significant drop compared to previous years [2][3] - The long-term contract prices for copper in various regions show substantial increases, with some areas reporting price hikes of at least 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous year [3] - The external trade long-term contracts for 2026 show a price increase of 100 USD/ton compared to the previous year, indicating optimism about overseas demand, particularly in Southeast Asia [3] Group 3 - Supply-side concerns are supported by predictions of marginal growth in global copper mine production of only 300,000 to 450,000 metric tons for 2026, influenced by various systemic risks [4] - Despite traditional consumption shrinking, global copper consumption is expected to grow by 3.4% year-on-year in 2026, driven by rapid growth in AI and energy storage consumption [5] - The macroeconomic environment and industry trends are expected to support a long-term upward trend in copper prices, with projections for the LME three-month copper price to range between 10,800 USD/ton and 15,000 USD/ton in 2026 [6]