玻璃、纯碱期价大幅上涨！涨势能否持续？

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in glass and soda ash futures prices is primarily driven by improved policy expectations and a recovery in market sentiment, with main contracts seeing increases of nearly 8% [1][2]. Macro Factors - The recent Central Bank meeting indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to support economic stability and boost market sentiment for commodities [3]. - The emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, along with maintaining ample liquidity, is seen as a foundation for improving macro expectations [3]. Industry Factors - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are leading to structural adjustments in the glass and soda ash industries, with initiatives like differentiated electricity pricing aimed at phasing out outdated capacities [3]. - Specific regional efforts, such as the transition to cleaner energy in glass production, are expected to further support price rebounds [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent improvements in production and sales in key regions are contributing to a favorable supply-demand balance for glass, with expectations of entering a destocking phase [4]. - However, the soda ash industry still faces significant supply pressure, with ongoing capacity expansions projected to add 410 million tons in 2025 and 430 million tons in 2026, while demand remains weak [5]. - The float glass market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with recent production declines and a slow recovery in the real estate market expected to lead to continued demand decreases [5][6]. Market Outlook - Industry experts suggest that both glass and soda ash sectors are at the bottom of their cycles, with limited rebound potential and increased short-term market volatility anticipated [7]. - Policy expectations are expected to dominate price trends, with fundamental factors unlikely to support sustained price increases [8]. - The long-term oversupply situation in soda ash is not expected to change quickly, while glass prices may see upward movement later in the year if supply-side adjustments are realized [8].