存储价格飙升背后的博弈：云服务厂商“财大气粗” 支付溢价超手机厂商50%至60%

Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price surge, primarily driven by the increased demand for AI computing power, leading to a severe supply-demand imbalance [1][8] - Major storage manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are reallocating production capacity towards HBM and DDR5, which is squeezing the supply of older memory types like DDR4 [1][8] - Cloud service providers are aggressively purchasing storage, accepting higher prices, and are willing to pay a premium of 50% to 60% over mobile manufacturers [2][8] Price Trends - The memory market has entered a "super bull market," surpassing historical highs from 2018, with suppliers' bargaining power at an all-time high [9] - Counterpoint Research forecasts memory prices to rise by 40% to 50% in Q4 2025 and again by 40% to 50% in Q1 2026, with an additional 20% increase expected in Q2 2026 [3][9] - The rising memory costs are impacting the Bill of Materials (BoM) for hardware manufacturers, with memory costs potentially exceeding 20% for flagship models [10][9] Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply of NAND Flash is tightening, with delays reported by manufacturers like Transcend due to supply chain issues from major suppliers [11] - New factory constructions by storage manufacturers will take at least two years to complete, meaning supply constraints are expected to persist until late 2027 [5][11] - The forecast for global smartphone production has been downgraded from a 0.1% increase to a 2% decrease for 2026 due to rising memory prices [12] Demand Projections - Demand for DRAM and NAND Flash in general and AI servers is projected to grow significantly, with a 20% increase in DRAM demand and a 19% increase in NAND Flash demand for general servers in 2026 [13] - AI server demand for LPDDR is expected to grow by 15%, while NAND Flash demand is anticipated to surge by over 70% [13] - The current cycle in the storage industry is expected to last longer than previous cycles, driven by the financial strength and resilience of cloud service providers [14]