有色金属板块延续强势，沪镍涨停

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strength, with significant price increases in nickel, tin, and alumina driven by low valuations, supply disruptions, and rising demand [1][2]. Group 1: Nickel Market - Nickel prices are surging due to tightening supply expectations from Indonesia and increased market sentiment, with nickel being relatively undervalued compared to other metals [2]. - Recent policy changes in Indonesia, including a reduction in nickel ore production quotas and a revision of the pricing formula for nickel, are expected to increase production costs [1][2]. - The solid-state battery industry's rapid development is anticipated to boost long-term demand for nickel, despite the current market fundamentals remaining weak [2]. Group 2: Tin Market - Tin prices are rising due to supply constraints and continuous demand growth, with recent production issues in Myanmar impacting supply significantly [2]. - The decline in ore quality from overseas sources is also contributing to the supply challenges in the tin market [2]. Group 3: Alumina Market - The increase in alumina prices is primarily driven by low valuations and the impact of differential electricity pricing policies, which are expected to lead to industry upgrades and higher operational costs [2]. - Electricity costs account for 13% to 15% of alumina production costs, making the differential pricing policy a significant factor in market sentiment [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current lack of downstream demand for non-ferrous metals and limited acceptance of high-priced goods in the spot market may lead to a gradual adjustment in pricing through the futures market [3]. - The non-ferrous metal sector may face significant correction risks in the medium to long term, particularly for alumina and lead, while the performance of nickel is heavily reliant on overseas policy factors [3]. - The market is expected to continue trading based on macroeconomic policies and supply security, with stronger performance anticipated for tin, copper, and aluminum, while nickel, zinc, and lead may perform relatively weaker [3].