棉花期货狂飙！美棉净空头仓位创5个月新低

Core Viewpoint - Recent cotton futures prices have shown a continuous upward trend, with the Zheng cotton main contract reaching a new high of 15,035 yuan/ton as of January 7, 2026, marking a 10% increase from December 1, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Price Drivers - The significant rise in cotton futures is driven by two main factors: better-than-expected cotton consumption and slower-than-expected accumulation of commercial cotton inventory [1] - As of December 15, 2025, national cotton commercial inventory decreased by 16,500 tons year-on-year, while apparent consumption increased, supporting higher cotton prices [1] - Macroeconomic factors, including improved Sino-U.S. relations and reduced tariffs, are expected to benefit China's textile and apparel exports [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - There are expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang for 2026, which could positively impact cotton prices [2] - The U.S. cotton market is experiencing significant sales pressure, with cumulative contracts at 1.4741 million tons as of December 25, 2025, significantly below the five-year average [4] - The USDA forecasts a global cotton production of 26.08 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with China's production expected to increase by 330,000 tons [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The global cotton production for the 2026/27 season is likely to remain stable or slightly decrease, with U.S. cotton production expected to maintain current levels or slightly decline due to low cotton-to-grain price ratios [5] - The recent increase in cotton prices has led to a stronger demand from downstream textile manufacturers, with retail sales in the apparel sector showing a year-on-year increase of 4% from January to November 2025 [6] - The Zheng cotton price is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with a potential price range of 15,000 to 16,000 yuan/ton, indicating possible market divergence as prices approach this range [7]