石油牌失效？特朗普拿下委内瑞拉5000万桶原油，为何难撼中国能源安全

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump regarding the agreement for Venezuela to transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. has significant geopolitical implications beyond the oil itself [1][3]. Oil Trade Dynamics - The transaction is estimated to involve an amount between $1.8 billion to $3 billion based on current oil prices [1]. - The oil will be sold at market prices, with funds controlled by the U.S. President to benefit both Venezuelan and American people [3]. - Some of the oil may be redirected from previously planned destinations, including China, which has been a key buyer of Venezuelan oil under U.S. sanctions [3]. Changes in Venezuela's Oil Exports - Venezuela's oil export patterns have shifted dramatically over the past decade, with exports to China accounting for over 80% of total exports in early 2024 [4]. - Following the tightening of U.S. sanctions in late 2024, Venezuela's oil exports are projected to decline by approximately 25% in 2025 compared to 2024 [4]. - The discount for Venezuela's main oil type, Merey, has been increasing in China, indicating rising risk costs for Chinese buyers [4]. China's Perspective - The share of Venezuelan oil in China's total imports has drastically decreased, from about 16.6 million tons in 2018 to less than 2 million tons in 2024, representing less than 0.4% of China's annual imports [5]. - China's Foreign Ministry has stated that U.S. demands violate international norms and infringe on Venezuela's sovereignty, emphasizing the normal economic cooperation between the two countries [5]. China's Energy Security Strategy - China's energy security strategy is based on diversification and broad coverage, avoiding reliance on a single source [6]. - China has established significant strategic petroleum reserves and expanded its oil import sources to dozens of countries, with stable supplies from major producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia [6]. - New regulations encouraging private investment in critical energy infrastructure aim to enhance the resilience and risk management of China's energy system [6]. U.S. Considerations - The push for this oil transaction is driven by geopolitical motives rather than just economic needs, as U.S. refineries are traditionally adept at processing Venezuelan heavy crude [7]. - The current global oil market is characterized by oversupply, with the U.S. being a leading oil producer, making the control of Venezuelan oil more about political leverage than energy supply [7]. - The timing of the announcement coincides with Venezuela's economic struggles, where oil remains a crucial source of foreign exchange [7].