中信证券:看好智谱 (02513) 领军国内通用大模型 公司25年收入超1亿美金
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-08 00:15

Company Overview - Company is a leading domestic general large model enterprise, focusing on advanced general large model development and is the largest independent developer in China, serving over 8,000 clients with more than 45 million downloads in the global developer community [2] - The management team has a strong technical background, including top scientists like Academician Zhang Bo [2] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 312 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150.9%, with H1 2025 revenue expected to reach 191 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 325.0% [2] - R&D expenses for H1 2025 are estimated at 1.595 billion yuan, with 1.145 billion yuan allocated to computing power [2] - The gross margin for local deployment business remains above 60%, indicating sustained scale effects driven by model performance [2] Industry Overview - The large language model market is expected to grow 20 times in the next six years, with enterprise-level demand dominating the trillion yuan opportunity [3] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the market size for China's large language models is projected to reach 5.3 billion yuan in 2024 and grow to 101.1 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 63.7% from 2024 to 2030 [3] - The enterprise-level large language model market is expected to reach 90.4 billion yuan by 2030, accounting for nearly 90% of the market [3] - The company holds a 6.6% market share in the large language model revenue for 2024, making it the largest independent large language model vendor [3] Model Capabilities - The company's models are characterized by high cost-effectiveness and low hallucination rates, covering diverse enterprise needs [4] - The model range includes parameters from edge deployment (9B) to flagship models (355B), catering to various enterprise requirements [4] - The GLM-4-9B model achieved one of the lowest hallucination rates (1.3%) among top models, according to Stanford University's AI Index report [4] - The latest flagship model, GLM-4.7, has shown excellent performance in coding and agent capabilities, narrowing the gap with leading overseas models [4] Business Growth Analysis - Local deployment revenue is expected to exceed 2 million yuan per client in 2024, having doubled over the past two years [5] - In 2024, 50% of the company's revenue is expected to come from the internet and technology sectors, with plans to expand into consumer electronics and IoT in the next six months [5] - The company aims to enter high-barrier industries such as education and healthcare, leveraging enhanced model capabilities to accelerate application deployment [5] - Cloud business is driven by new products like GLM CodingPlan and AutoGLM, with the latest GLM-4.7 ranking first in open-source performance [5] - The number of paid users on the open platform Bigmodel.cn is expected to grow tenfold, with high-cost performance coding tools significantly impacting cloud revenue in 2026 [5]