有色金属板块延续强势 沪镍涨停

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strength, with significant price increases in nickel, tin, and alumina contracts, driven by low valuations and supply disruptions [1][2]. Price Movements - Nickel (沪镍2602) rose by 8.00% to 147,720, while tin (沪锡2602) increased by 5.33% to 359,050, and alumina (氧化铝2605) saw a rise of 4.97% to 2,938 [2]. - Other notable increases include lithium carbonate (碳酸锂2605) at +4.54%, lead (沪铅2602) at +1.83%, and aluminum (沪铝2602) at +1.18% [2]. Market Drivers - The price surge in nickel is attributed to cost support and policy disruptions, particularly from Indonesia, which has reduced nickel ore production quotas and plans to revise the pricing formula for nickel [3][4]. - Tin prices are driven by supply constraints and increasing demand, with production recovery in Myanmar falling short of expectations [4]. - Alumina prices are supported by low valuations and the impact of differential electricity pricing policies, which are expected to increase operational costs [4]. Market Outlook - The current non-ferrous metal bull market is primarily driven by the depreciation of the US dollar and rising geopolitical risks, which enhance investment demand [4]. - However, there is a concern regarding insufficient downstream demand in the domestic market, leading to limited transaction volumes and deep discounts in the spot market [4]. - The long-term outlook suggests potential risks of significant corrections in the non-ferrous sector, particularly for aluminum and lead, while nickel's price increase heavily relies on overseas policy factors [4][5].