观车 · 论势 || 本土化与生态“出海”将是破局关键

Core Insights - In 2025, China's automobile exports reached 6.343 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, with new energy vehicle (NEV) exports at 2.315 million units, up 102.9% [1] - The growth momentum is expected to continue into 2026, with a transition to a "stable quantity and improved quality" phase, as the industry expands export scale and deepens localization efforts [1] - Multiple challenges such as rising trade barriers and stricter compliance requirements will test the global operational capabilities of Chinese automakers [1] Export Predictions - Various organizations predict optimistic growth for China's automobile exports in 2026, with estimates ranging from 6.8 million to 8 million units, and NEV exports expected to reach 3.5 million units [2] - The export growth rate is anticipated to slow down, with forecasts suggesting a 10% to 20% increase, driven primarily by NEVs [2] - Key markets for growth include emerging markets and developed markets, with Mexico, UAE, Brazil, Philippines, UK, and Belgium identified as significant contributors [2] Localization Efforts - The localization process for Chinese automakers is accelerating, with investments in overseas factories to create multi-regional production layouts [3] - Companies like BYD and Chery are establishing production facilities in Europe and Southeast Asia, aiming to enhance capacity and localization rates [3] - Core component supply chains are also being localized, with companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech establishing overseas production bases to mitigate supply chain risks [3] Market Adaptation - Chinese automakers are optimizing product configurations to meet diverse market demands and are building comprehensive service ecosystems covering sales, after-sales, charging, and financing [4] - The establishment of overseas charging networks and new business models like used cars and car subscriptions is accelerating, contributing to a sustainable overseas operational ecosystem [4] - This ecological "going global" model is shifting the Chinese automotive industry from a "participant" to a "leader" in the global value chain [4] Challenges Ahead - The road to 2026 will not be smooth, as trade barriers and compliance requirements are expected to intensify, particularly in the EU, which is imposing stricter localization standards [4] - Mexico's new tariff policy, effective January 1, 2026, will significantly increase import duties on vehicles from non-free trade agreement countries, impacting the competitiveness of Chinese brands [4] - Supply chain risks, particularly in automotive-grade chips and geopolitical factors, pose significant challenges for Chinese automakers [5][6] - The varying technical standards and consumer habits across different markets will require higher operational standards from Chinese companies [6]