2026年或是煤炭行业新一轮周期起点，关注煤炭ETF（515220）

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector experienced a significant rise on January 7, with the coal ETF (515220) closing up by 3.80% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The coal ETF (515220) closed at 1.093, with a previous close of 1.053, indicating a price increase of 0.040 [2]. - The trading volume for the coal ETF was 12.68 million shares, with a turnover rate of 15.47% [2]. - The highest price reached during the trading session was 1.094, while the lowest was 1.053 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A report indicated that due to insufficient implementation of coal supply guarantees for 2024-2025, 26 out of 52 coal mines were removed from the supply guarantee list, reducing capacity by 19 million tons [4]. - The remaining 26 coal mines will retain their increased capacity temporarily, with future adjustments based on the fulfillment of long-term contracts for 2026 [4]. - The overall impact of these capacity adjustments is expected to be limited, but the sentiment in the coal industry has been positively affected [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The coal sector is experiencing a seasonal demand boost for coking coal, which is expected to support prices [4]. - The year 2026 may mark the beginning of a new cycle for the coal industry, with a slight increase in the price center anticipated [4]. - Leading companies in the coal sector are expected to maintain a dividend yield advantage, and the valuation elasticity of the coal sector may become apparent as pessimistic price expectations are reversed [4].