中国银河证券：风光储反内卷与科技共振 供需改善周期拐点将至

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of China Galaxy Securities highlights the acceleration of new technologies in photovoltaic BC, perovskite, and copper paste, leading to industrialization and global opportunities, with an expected turning point in supply-demand improvement cycle [1] - In 2025, the oversupply situation in wind and solar energy will persist, but profit recovery driven by anti-involution and overseas expansion is anticipated, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 17.66% and the ChiNext Index up by 49.57% as of December 31, 2025 [1] - The 136th document accelerates the comprehensive entry of new energy into the market, with 2026 marking the beginning of a new cycle for new energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting AIDC storage, offshore wind, and solar storage as key areas of demand [1] Group 2 - The energy storage market is driven by domestic and international policies, with significant growth in demand for large-scale storage, particularly in North America, where demand is projected to increase from 8.9 GWh in 2025 to 190 GW by 2030, representing a CAGR of approximately 84% [2] - In Europe, a concentrated implementation period is expected in the next 3-5 years, with strong demand for industrial and commercial storage, leading to a surge in orders for Chinese companies expanding overseas [2] - Domestic independent storage has attractive internal rate of return (IRR), with a projected CAGR of about 37% from 2025 to 2027 [2] Group 3 - The wind power sector is expected to see simultaneous growth in volume and profit, with domestic installations of onshore and offshore wind projected at 110-120 GW and 12-16 GW respectively by 2026, and global offshore wind CAGR expected to reach 27% over the next 25-30 years [3] - The reduction of internal competition and increased quality awareness are stabilizing prices for onshore wind turbines, while offshore wind prices are expected to remain limited in decline [3] - The acceleration of overseas orders and the recovery of profitability for main engine manufacturers are anticipated, with increased benefits from the utilization of capacity and overseas expansion in components [3] Group 4 - The photovoltaic sector is leading in growth, with installations expected to reach 230-250 GW in 2026, driven by recovery in Europe and strong demand in the US and India, as well as emerging markets [4] - The anti-involution trend is driving profit recovery across the entire industry chain, with expectations for component prices to stabilize as early as spring [4] - Technological advancements such as the expansion of BC battery capacity, mass production of perovskite, and breakthroughs in silver reduction technology are expected to lower costs and enhance profitability [4]