Group 1 - Market traders are increasingly betting on potential international turmoil following President Trump's military actions in Venezuela, with a notable increase in speculation about future U.S. military engagements [1] - Analyst Andy Laperriere from Piper Sandler noted that Trump's confidence in using military force has grown, indicating a high-risk preference in his second term [1] - The probability of Trump "regaining control of the Panama Canal" has risen to over 35%, up from less than 30% the previous week, reflecting heightened investor interest [1] Group 2 - A senior U.S. official revealed that Trump is exploring various options to acquire Greenland, including purchasing it from Denmark and military options, emphasizing the importance of this issue for national security [2] - Trump's repeated assertions about acquiring Greenland have faced strong opposition from European leaders, with a joint statement from several countries affirming that Greenland belongs to its people [2] - The Danish government has entered "full crisis mode" following Trump's latest comments regarding Greenland, indicating significant geopolitical tensions [2] Group 3 - New prediction markets have emerged on Polymarket, with significant betting amounts on potential U.S. military actions against Colombia and Cuba, reflecting ongoing tensions in the region [3] - On Kalshi, there is speculation about the likelihood of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stepping down before next year, with a current probability of about 54% [3] - Trump's previous military actions against Iran have escalated U.S. involvement in regional conflicts, with threats of severe retaliation if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program [3]
从委内瑞拉到巴拿马运河、格陵兰岛,预测市场对特朗普政府后续军事行动下注近250万美元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-07 02:01