Ge Long Hui·2026-01-07 02:01Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities forecasts a moderate recovery of China's macro economy in 2026, with an expected GDP growth rate of 4.9%, characterized by structural differentiation [1] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates resilient exports and a gradual recovery in investments, while consumer goods consumption may face short-term pressure [1] - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to feature marginal liquidity easing alongside moderate economic recovery [1] Asset Class Recommendations - Recommended asset classes in order of preference: commodities > stocks > bonds [1] Equity Market Projections - The report predicts a 5%-10% increase in the annual performance of the Wind All A-share index in 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a performance rebound and a second round of valuation recovery, termed a "Davis Double" [1] - US stocks are likely to maintain growth momentum under a backdrop of fiscal and monetary easing during the midterm election year [1] Bond Market Expectations - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, with a pattern of decline followed by an increase [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to remain within a range of 3.9% to 4.3% [1] Commodity Market Insights - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel [1] - Gold is expected to remain strong due to liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the growth rate may slow [1] - Copper is anticipated to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an average price forecasted to rise to $12,000 per ton [1] Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to enter a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate gradually approaching 6.8 [1]