国信证券：商业航天万亿市场蓄势待发 建议重点关注高壁垒、高弹性的核心环节

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities highlights the transformation of China's commercial aerospace industry from a "national heavy machinery" model to an "industrial consumer goods" model, marking a critical development turning point [1] Group 1: Commercial Aerospace Transformation - The industry is shifting from the "state-led" Old Space model to a "private-led, cost-first" New Space model, necessitating technological innovation for cost reduction [1] - 2015 marked a pivotal moment for global commercial aerospace with SpaceX's successful recovery, while 2024-2025 is expected to be a breakout year for China's commercial aerospace [1] Group 2: Key Technological Drivers - The current explosion in the industry is driven by the convergence of four technological dimensions: launch, manufacturing, payload, and propulsion, leading to exponential cost reductions [2] - Reusable launch technology is transforming rockets from "single-use consumables" to "reusable assets," with launch costs decreasing from $50,000/kg to $2,000/kg and aiming for $200/kg [2] - Liquid oxygen-methane is emerging as the next-generation fuel, addressing maintenance issues and enabling high-frequency launches [2] - 3D printing and automotive-grade materials are reducing rocket engine components by 90% and shortening manufacturing cycles from months to weeks [2] - Industrial and consumer-grade components are replacing expensive aerospace-grade chips, significantly lowering the cost of satellite production [2] Group 3: Policy Support and Market Demand - There is a favorable policy environment for commercial aerospace development from central to local levels [3] - The "Thousand Star Constellation" and "GW Constellation" plans in China aim for over 25,000 satellites, with a projected launch demand of approximately 8,750 tons from 2026 to 2030, corresponding to a manufacturing and launch market worth thousands of billions [3] - The primary constraint is the insufficient low-cost launch capacity, making the mature application of reusable rockets a critical threshold [3]