人民币升值VS贬值：一场没有硝烟的战争，谁在受益，谁在受损？

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB against the USD, surpassing the 7.0 mark, has sparked mixed reactions regarding its impact on the economy, highlighting that both appreciation and depreciation have structural implications for different industries [1][2]. Group 1: Benefits of RMB Appreciation - Lowering import costs and aiding industrial upgrades: Industries reliant on imported raw materials and high-end equipment, such as paper manufacturing and high-tech sectors, benefit from reduced production costs due to RMB appreciation [4]. - Alleviating imported inflation and stabilizing domestic prices: The appreciation of the RMB can lower the import prices of commodities priced in USD, helping to stabilize domestic prices and benefiting consumers [5]. - Enhancing the international status of the RMB and attracting foreign investment: A stronger RMB increases its international credibility, making RMB-denominated assets more attractive to foreign investors, which can improve market liquidity and support the internationalization of the RMB [6]. Group 2: Challenges of RMB Appreciation - Direct impact on export industries: RMB appreciation makes Chinese goods more expensive in international markets, reducing price competitiveness, particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors like textiles and electronics [7]. - Risk of attracting speculative capital: A perception of unilateral RMB appreciation may lead to an influx of speculative capital, potentially inflating asset prices and complicating financial management [8]. Group 3: Benefits of RMB Depreciation - Stimulating exports: Depreciation makes Chinese goods cheaper for foreign buyers, increasing orders and profits for export companies [9]. - Promoting domestic employment: Increased orders for export companies can lead to expanded production and job creation, particularly in labor-intensive industries [10]. - Attracting foreign tourism and consumption: A weaker RMB allows foreign tourists to exchange more currency for RMB, reducing their costs in China and boosting the tourism sector [11]. Group 4: Challenges of RMB Depreciation - Rising import costs and inflation: Industries dependent on imported raw materials face increased costs, which may be passed on to consumers, leading to higher domestic prices [12]. - Increased external debt pressure: Sectors with significant USD-denominated debt may face heightened repayment burdens due to depreciation, impacting their financial stability [12]. Group 5: Overall Perspective - There is no absolute "good" or "bad" regarding RMB appreciation or depreciation; the ideal scenario is maintaining a stable exchange rate that aligns with current economic needs, avoiding extreme fluctuations [13].