铝价 2026年仍具备走强动能

Core Insights - The domestic alumina market is expected to experience significant fluctuations in 2025, with prices declining from historical highs to near cost levels due to increased supply and external factors [1][7] - The aluminum price is projected to rise overall in 2025, influenced by various positive factors including U.S. economic data and international cooperation agreements [2] - The aluminum alloy ADC12 prices are anticipated to show a mixed trend, with an overall increase compared to 2024, driven by raw material price changes and demand fluctuations [3] Domestic Alumina Market - In 2025, domestic alumina production reached 81.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.44%, with a notable recovery in production capacity in the second half of the year [7] - The domestic alumina market is expected to maintain a growth trend in 2026, but the incremental space is relatively limited due to regulatory and environmental factors [4] - The cumulative import of bauxite in China from January to November 2025 was 186.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.44%, with Guinea being the largest supplier [4][5] Global Bauxite Supply - Guinea's bauxite production increased by 24.36% in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing significantly to the global market despite local policy changes [5] - The global bauxite supply is expected to see an increase of 40 to 50 million tons in 2026, primarily driven by production recovery in Guinea [6] Aluminum Price Trends - The aluminum price is expected to rise steadily in 2025, supported by a combination of favorable economic conditions and reduced global aluminum inventory [2] - The domestic aluminum alloy ADC12 prices are projected to fluctuate, with a general upward trend influenced by raw material costs and market demand [3] Emerging Consumption Areas - The demand for aluminum in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence and energy storage is expected to grow, providing new opportunities for the industry [11] - The automotive sector in China showed strong growth in 2025, with production and sales of new energy vehicles leading the increase [11] Cost and Profitability - The production costs for alumina are expected to decline due to lower prices for raw materials, with the theoretical loss margin narrowing significantly by the end of 2025 [8] - The profitability of aluminum companies is projected to improve due to the dual benefits of falling alumina prices and rising aluminum prices, with profit margins reaching approximately 5,800 yuan per ton by the end of 2025 [10]