国补\降价\购置税兜底全堆上，新车咋还卖不动？

Core Viewpoint - The domestic passenger car market is experiencing a significant decline in demand, with consumer sentiment remaining cautious despite government subsidies. Major brands are facing substantial order drops, while only a few have managed to maintain order volumes through temporary incentives [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall customer traffic in the domestic passenger car market has decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, indicating a contraction in market demand [1]. - Major brands like BYD, Leap Motor, and Chery have seen order volumes drop by over 50% in the first three days of January compared to the last weekend of December, primarily due to unmet policy expectations and reduced brand subsidies [1]. - In contrast, Geely Galaxy has shown resilience with orders reaching 8-10 units per store, while Tesla maintained orders at 15-18 units, albeit down over 30% from December [1]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies - BMW has initiated a price war by reducing the prices of 31 models, with discounts reaching up to 301,000 yuan for the flagship 7 Series, marking a significant shift for a luxury brand that rarely engages in large-scale price cuts [3][4]. - Following BMW's lead, numerous automakers have introduced various incentives, including tax rebates and cash discounts, in an attempt to stimulate demand, although these measures have not effectively countered the market's cold reception during the New Year period [3][4]. Group 3: Subsidy Policies - The automotive industry is witnessing a surge in subsidy policies across various brands, with a focus on counteracting the reduction of national subsidies and adjusting purchase tax incentives [4][6]. - Luxury brands are adopting aggressive subsidy strategies, with BMW and Volvo offering substantial direct discounts and additional benefits such as free maintenance and financing options [4][6]. - Domestic brands are implementing targeted subsidies for mid-to-low-end models, with Geely Galaxy and Wuling providing significant purchase tax rebates and trade-in bonuses to attract budget-conscious consumers [6][7]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The market is experiencing a clear divide in consumer response, with luxury brands facing a relatively stable order decline due to lower price sensitivity among their target customers, while mass-market vehicles under 150,000 yuan are seeing the most significant drops in orders [10][12]. - The anticipated reduction in national subsidies for 2026 has led to increased consumer hesitance, particularly among mid-to-low-end buyers, who are now facing higher costs for vehicle purchases [17][19]. - The reliance on subsidies has created a false sense of demand, leading to a market correction as consumers delay purchases in anticipation of better deals [19][20].