Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-07 02:55Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the global economy will continue to experience low growth, with real GDP growth expected to remain around 2.4% in 2026, influenced by various positive and negative factors [1][9][21]. Economic Overview - In 2025, global economic growth slowed compared to 2024, with real GDP growth at approximately 2.4%. Consumption faced pressure, while investment showed moderate expansion, particularly in the AI sector. Different economies exhibited varied performances, with manufacturing experiencing significant fluctuations and services remaining active [1][8][11]. - Global inflation continued to decline, with CPI growth around 3.6%. The frequent adjustments in U.S. tariff policies emerged as a major disruption to global trade, while cross-border direct investment showed a "front low back high" trend [1][2][8]. Inflation Trends - The downward trend in global inflation is nearing its end, with CPI growth expected to remain around 3.6% in 2026. Different economies are experiencing diverging inflation rates, with service trade and high-value goods trade showing potential for growth [2][22][24]. Trade Dynamics - U.S. tariff policies have become a primary disruptive factor in global trade, leading to a slowdown in overall trade growth and accelerating structural adjustments. The global trade growth rate is projected to be between 1% and 2% in 2026, with a focus on regional trade agreements and high-value goods [25][31][33]. Fiscal Policy - Major economies are expected to continue with expansionary fiscal policies, focusing on tax cuts, military spending, and infrastructure investments. The U.S. is projected to maintain a high defense budget, while the EU and Japan are also increasing their fiscal expenditures [34][37][39]. Monetary Policy - Central banks in major economies are likely to adopt flexible monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve expected to implement gradual interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank is anticipated to maintain a neutral rate, while the Bank of Japan continues its normalization path [40][41][42].